This is to illustrate the difficulty in predicting the future

• "Heavier than air flying machines are impossible." Lord Kelvin, Pres., Royal Society, 1895
• "That's an amazing invention, but who would ever want to use one?" President Rutherford B. Hayes referring to the telephone

  MORE

• "There is no likelihood that man can ever tap the power of the atom," Robert Milikan, winner, Nobel Prize for Physics, 1923
• "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" Harry W. Warner, Warner Bros. Pictures, 1927 (regarding sound in movies)

  YET MORE

• Wright brothers offered their invention to both the U.S. and Royal Navies, but were told airplanes had no future in the military

  WOULD YOU BELIEVE...

• In 1900 Mercedes-Benz study estimated that the worldwide demand for automobiles would never exceed 1 million... primarily because of the limitation of available chauffers

  MORE RECENTLY

• Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science in 1949: "Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1 1/2 tons."
• T.J.Watson, CEO, IBM, 1943: "I think there is a world market for maybe 5 computers."

  THEN

• "I have travelled the length of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year." Editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957.

  FINALLY

• "There is no reason that anyone would want a computer in his home." Ken Olsen, President, CEO, and founder of Digital Computer Corp., 1977

Predicting the future is not an easy job. Be wary when someone says "I guarantee that ... will happen in 20 years".

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