Sports

Bracketology 2005: The mid-majors strike back

Update: March 13, 2005
Its Selection Sunday and the bracket will be announced in less than two hours. The field has now taken shape. With New Mexico and Utah State winning last night, the bubble has shrunk to 4 spots, and Iowa State is on pretty solid ground so that leaves only 3 spots for 10 bubble teams: Maryland, Notre Dame, Indiana, Iowa, UAB, DePaul, Miami (OH), Buffalo, N. Iowa, and Wichita St. Iowa is the official bubble state and should be very happy when the announcements are made because all three of the Iowa schools are in my last 4 in! Iowa State is my 4th team in. Buffalo slides in after an OT loss in the MAC championship to Ohio. If they didn't lose in OT by a buzzer beater, this spot might goto conference regular season champs Miami (OH), who lost to Ohio in the semis. But Miami is only 5-5 in their last 10 games. Buffalo is 8-2 in their last 10, with both losses coming to Ohio. Miami also lost to Ohio twice in the last 10. Buffalo and Miami split in the regular season. A regular season ending loss to sub-200 RPI Marshall probably sealed Miami (OH)'s fate, while Buffalo has not lost to a sub-100 RPI team all year.

N. Iowa is next in line for an NCAA bid. Despite losing in the quarterfinals of the MVC tourney, N. Iowa has a solid resume that includes a blowout win over Iowa State and a split with conference champs S. Illinois. They also split with Wichita St., and swept SMS in the regular season before falling to the Bears in the MVC tourney. The Bears went on to upset #1 seed S. Illinois the next game. N. Iowa also has quality losses at Cincy by 6, at Iowa by 3 when Iowa was playing very well, and twice to Creighton by a single point each. With a top-40 RPI, a 7-3 finish, and solid wins over fellow NCAA teams Iowa St. and S. Illinois, they clearly should make the NCAAs ahead of teams like UAB, which has not beaten an NCAA at-large team this season.

That leaves the last spot, which comes down to Iowa versus Maryland. Notre Dame is out for losing to Rutgers in their conference tourney. Losing to Clemson is one thing--a hot team that almost knocked off UNC and will make some noise in the NIT--losing to Rutgers is another. DePaul is behind UAB, and UAB is not getting in without at top 50 RPI win. Indiana is out after getting blown out by Minnesota, the MAC isn't getting 3 bids, and the MVC isn't getting 4, so that leaves Maryland and Iowa. Maryland's 2 wins over Duke and win over GT are looking even better now that those two teams played for the ACC championship. But their RPI has slid into the 60's, some 20 spots behind Iowa. Iowa also has 21 wins overall and a big win over Michigan State in the Big 10 tournament. All of their early wins came with leading scorer Pierre Pierce, who was kicked off the team, but Iowa proved they can play well without him with the Michigan State win and a buzzer beater loss to Wisconsin. It also doesn't hurt that Iowa's AD is the chair of the selection committee this year.

Florida ensured that Kentucky does not get the fourth #1 seed by blowing out the Wildcats, 70-53, to earn their first ever SEC Championship! The Gators are playing spectacularly down the stretch, winning 9 of their last 10 and beating Kentucky twice in a week. They have seen their seed skyrocket from a 7 a week and a half ago all the way up to a three.

Meanwhile, Duke has taken advantage and claimed the 4th #1 seed, giving them a #1 seed for an unprecedented eighth straight year! The Blue Devils clipped GA Tech in a nailbiter to win their 6th ACC Championship in seven seasons as Coach K's dynasty continues. The Blue Devils have probably now secured an opening round site in Charlotte, forcing fellow #1 seed Wake Forest to Nashville. Scroll down to see my final NCAA projections.

March 12

Selection Sunday is less than 24 hours away and the field is starting to take shape. While most teams seem to be trying to play their way out of the NCAAs, a few teams have played their way in. NC State, Minnesota, and West Virginia all had great conference tournaments and are now locks for at-large bids. Luckily, for teams such as Maryland, many others have not done the same. This also bodes well for the conference with the highest percentage of its teams in the RPI to 50...

Quick, name the conference with the highest percentage of its teams in the RPI top 50. Big East? Nope, 5 of 12 doesn't get it done. ACC? Close, but 5 of 11 is only good for second place. Guess again. Give up? It's the MVC, yes the Missouri Valley Conference, with half of their 10 teams in the top 50. They're rated the #8 overall conference, ahead of leagues such as C-USA, the MWC, WAC, and A-10. All week, the high major bubble teams have been rooting for the Pacifics, Utahs, and Nevadas of the world and hoping that their conference tournaments don't end up like the MVC's, in which S. Illinois and N. Iowa, the two teams with the best profiles entering the tournament, both lost before the finals. Unfortunately for them, Nevada did lose, giving the WAC two bids. Its a blessing and a curse for UTEP, who was on the bubble: on the plus side, it opens up the draw for them to win the automatic bid; but a loss to Boise St. in the finals is a lot different than a loss to Nevada would have been, and would probably leave the Miners in the NIT.

Its Championship week and the Madness of March is in full swing. There have been few days crazier than last Sunday, a day which saw four teams in the top 7 lose in thrillers. #1 undefeated Illinois lost in the last minute to Ohio St, #3 Kentucky fell in the last minute to a surging Florida team, and #7 Kansas rallied but fell short at Mizzou. #2 UNC just barely came back to eek out a last second win over #6 Duke in another classic match-up in the greatest rivalry in college sports. The teams played two games this year that were decided by a total of three points and just might meet up again this Sunday in the ACC finals (not to mention a possible fourth meeting in the Final Four). And finally, #4 Wake needed a last second, running one-hander to take care of NC State. Add to that #5 Boston College's loss earlier in the week and #8 Oklahoma State's losss on Saturday and UNC and Wake were only teams in the top 8 not to lose!

So who does that leave as the #1 seeds? Clearly Illinois despite the one loss. They're definitely joined by UNC and Wake Forest, despite losses in the ACC tournament. How about the last one seed though? Not Kansas, after losing to Oklahoma St. Not BC after getting pummeled by W. Virginia. Kentucky? Arizona? How about Duke? Yes, the Blue Devils are in line for their 8th straight 1 seed should they take care of Georgia Tech and win their 6th ACC championship in 7 years. Sure, Kentucky at #4 is one spot ahead of the Blue Devils but its Duke getting that last #1 seed. Why? Because its about who you've played and who you've beaten. Not many teams can match Duke's 2 wins over top 5 teams and 4-2 record vs top 25 competition. They own wins over UNC, Wake Forest, and Michigan State at home and Big 12 champs Oklahoma on a neutral court. Those two losses? At UNC by 2 and at Wake by 3. Both games came down to the last possession. Kentucky also played at UNC; they lost by double figures. At Louisville is a quality win and at Alabama is a good one, though not likely to be a top 25 win when the new poll comes out Monday. They also have a home loss to Kansas, making them 2-2 vs the top 25 for now, 1-2 come Monday, with an RPI of 11 because they play in the weak SEC. Arizona you say? Lost at Virginia and home vs Wake, two opponents in common with Duke, and are ranked lower in both the polls and RPI.

Its Championship week and the automatic bids have mostly been given out. We now have 18 teams that can officially go out and buy their dancing shoes, including Gonzaga, once again WCC champs for the 6th time in the last 7 seasons, and Louisville, who wins the C-USA tourney on their way to the Big East.

Its Championship week and that means there's a bubble. And its a big one. This year is going to be one of the hardest brackets to project (and for the selection committee to make!). Going into Championship week, there was very little difference between the last 10 or so in and the last 10 or so out! Things have shaken out a little bit with teams such as NC State, WV, and Minnesota playing their way in and teams such as Indiana, Georgetown, Vanderbilt, and Virginia Tech playing their way out. The fact that more teams have played their way out than in will help teams such as Maryland, N. Iowa, and Notre Dame that lost early in their conference tournaments but have solid profiles.

The ACC had 7 different teams ranked at once this season, tying a record, but then Virginia and NC State collapsed. NC State has since rebounded and sped straight by the bubble to join the field of 65 after wins over FSU and Wake Forest and a close loss to Duke. Maryland had another chance to lock up a bid on Thursday, but lost to Clemson for the third time this season. The fact that the Tigers turned around and almost knocked off top seed and #2 ranked UNC, leading for 19 minutes of the second half, makes Maryland's loss nowhere near as bad as say Notre Dame's to Rutgers. The Terps have been sweating it out all week but just may squeeze into the field on the strength of their two wins against Duke. Those look even better if Duke wins the ACC championship, so ironically all Terp fans out there are going to have to be rooting for Duke tomorrow. VA Tech and Miami are out after opening round losses.

Meanwhile, the Big East (thanks in part to a weaker bottom half than the ACC), which seemed poised for a NCAA record 8 bids a couple of weeks ago, may be down to 6 bids. Seven is still a possibility, but Notre Dame is looking weaker than Maryland after an embarassing opening round loss to lowly Rutgers, their fourth loss in five games, and an RPI in the 90s. West Virginia is playing great basketball and is definitely in after reaching the Big East Finals, while Georgetown is definitely out.

The Big 12 has 5 very strong locks for the big dance and Iowa State has may have done what it needed to do, finishing up with wins over Mizzou and Coloardo, and Baylor in the first round of the Big 12 tournament. Losing to Texas Tech won't hurt them, especially after the Red Raiders made the Big 12 Finals. Texas A&M is out after a bad first round loss to Kansas St.

The Big 10 has had another weak season despite #1 Illinois, but will be up from an embarassing record low of 3 bids last year. Illinois, Michigan St., and Wisconsin are all high seeds, and Minnesota (21-10, 10-6, RPI 37) is definitely in after an impressive double-figure win over Indiana. Indiana, on the other hand, is out after losing to Minnesota and finishing 15-13 overall with an RPI in the 80s. Iowa is an interesting case, but at 7-9 in conference may have had to reach the Big 10 finals to get an at-large bid. They fell a Wisconsin buzzer-beater short after surviving Michigan St. Still, with an RPI of 41, a 21-11 record, and wins over Louisville, Michigan St., Texas, and Texas Tech, the Hawkeyes bear consideration.

Conference USA had a record 6 teams in the big dance last year (and for the second year in a row a surprising upset of Kentucky in the tourney) However this season, only Louisville, Cincy, and Charlotte are locks. DePaul and UAB are on the bubble, but neither of them has a real NCAA-worthy profile. Both are 10-6 in conference, but C-USA is only the #10 rated league this season. DePaul (18-9, RPI 57) had a chance to lock up a bid with a win over either UAB or Louisville last week, but lost both. Then they lost to UAB again in the C-USA quarterfinals. They have only 2 wins over NCAA teams: Cincy and ODU. Meanwhile they have losses versus 4 sub-100 RPI teams. With only two wins vs. top 50 RPI teams and a 4-7 road+neutral record, this sounds more like an NIT profile. Especially when you compare them with teams such as N. Iowa and GW. UAB? They don't even have that good a profile. DePaul was their best win. Beating them a second time does put UAB ahead of DePaul, but does it put them in the field? Probably not but the Blazers may have a chance just because no one else got a big win, and Memphis fell two free throws short of upsetting Louisville and taking the C-USA automatic bid.

Once again, the PAC 10 and SEC are very weak, which opens the door for several up-and-coming mid-majors. The PAC 10 will get 4 teams in this season after only getting 3 teams last year. After Arizona and Washington, Stanford and UCLA both locked up bids last week. Stanford beat Washington to finish 11-7 in conference and UCLA swept the Oregon schools after beating Notre Dame to also finish 11-7.

The SEC is by far the weakest of the BCS conferences this season and could be renamed the Kentucky and everybody else conference. UK once again dominated the conference, going 14-2. UK has now won or shared 43 SEC titles. Everyone else combined has won or shared 42. UK is #4 in the country, but weaker than they have been the past couple of years. The Wildcats are in the SEC Finals once again and in the hunt for a #1 seed, should Duke lose to GA Tech. They will rematch Florida, which just beat Kentucky in Gainesville last weekend by one point. Their two games this season have been decided by a total of four points, so it should be another good one. The Gators have been surging and showing a toughness that they have been lacking the past couple of years. They have won five straight games when scoring under 80 points, including overcoming a 17-point second half deficit at S. Carolina and a 4-point deficit in the last minute against Kentucky, proving that they can find a way to win even when the three-pointers aren't dropping. That was Florida's first win over the Wildcats in 4 years; now they'll try for their second win in 7 days over UK. The Gators have locked up their 7th consecutive year with a 6th seed or higher. The only two other teams to do this are Duke and Kentucky! They're likely a 4 seed right now but have an outside shot at a 3 should they win the SEC tournament for the first time ever. LSU is also a lock after a late surge, as are Alabama and Mississippi St, both of which fell to Florida in the SEC tournament.

Of course Gonzaga (25-4, 12-2, RPI 10) can no longer be considered a mid-major. They're a top-level major team playing in a mid-major conference. With wins over Georgia Tech, Washington, and Oklahoma St. this season, Gonzaga is currently a solid 3 seed. They might have been the first and best to bring attention to the mid-majors, but there are lots of others following in their footsteps. The WCC, rated the #7 conference, will definitely get a second bid for St. Mary's, the team Gonzaga defeated in the WCC Finals. The Gaels are 23-7 (11-3) with an RPI of #31 and a win over Gonzaga. They're looking at a 9 or 10 seed.

Utah, Pacific, and Nevada are all in the top 25 and are locks regardless of what happens in their conference tournaments. But will all their leagues be 1-bid leagues? The Big West likely will if Pacific loses. But New Mexico is an interesting case in the MWC: they're 22-6 (10-4) with an RPI of 85 and a bad SOS, but they're 22-3 with star player Danny Granger in the lineup. One of those losses was to Wake Forest. They did also give Utah their only conference loss, but unfortunately that was their only win over a top 50 RPI team. They're in the MWC Finals, so they've done what they needed to have a chance, but better yet, win against Utah and make sure. UTEP was the last team in last year and are in a similar situation this year at 24-7 (14-4) RPI#50. They split with Nevada, winning on the road and losing by two at home. Beat Boise St in the Finals, and the Miners join the Wolfpack in the Big Dance. Lose and well, the #14 conference is not getting three bids.

The MAC is just a complete mess, with 7 teams finishing at 11-7, one game behind Miami (OH). The conference tournament has sorted out the mess, somewhat. Buffalo is in the finals and has a good profile (22-8, 11-7, RPI 28, 3-6 vs RPI top 50). Beat Ohio, who swept them in the regular season, and they're in. Lose, and its gonna be close. Do you take them, or Miami (OH), who lost to Ohio in the semis? The Redhawks have a very solid profile (18-10, 12-6, RPI 31, 4-5 vs RPI top 50). Kent St. and Akron are out at this point after losing early in the MAC tournament. Ohio (20-10, 11-7, RPI 47, 5-4 vs RPI top 50) has four losses vs sub-140 RPI teams and may have to win against Buffalo to breathe safely. Needless to say, Maryland, N. Iowa, and Notre Dame are rooting for Buffalo to make the MAC a 1-bid league. It could easlily get two and probably deserves two. Three is a stretch though.

The A-10 on the other hand may be a one bid league if GW wins it all. They are the only team with anything resembling an at-large profile and are probably in after reaching the A-10 Finals. Regular season champs St. Joe's must win the conference tournament to get their bid.

And that brings us back to the MVC, where Creighton won the automatic bid Monday night. The Blue-Jays would have been in even if they had lost and have been a very hot team lately. Their profile was only helped on Sunday: they beat both Ohio St. and Missouri earlier this season. S. Illinois is a lock for their 4th straight NCAA appearance with an RPI of 16. The MVC regular season champs seem to be following in Gonzaga's footsteps and hope to get back to the Sweet 16 this year. The one thing they haven't been able to do the last four years though is win the MVC tournament, despite winning or sharing the regular season title every year. That's how tough this league is. I like N. Iowa to get a third bid out of the MVC with a solid profile (20-10, 11-7, RPI 36, 4-6 vs RPI top 50). They have a blowout win over Iowa St. in their pocket as well as good losses at Cincy by 6 and at a "good" Iowa by 3. They split with S. Illinois and Wichita St., winning the regular season finale on a buzzer beater and swept SMS in the regular season despite losing to them in the MVC QFs. They did get swept by Creighton, but both losses were by just one point. The QF loss to SMS is mitigated by SMS's subsequent upset of S. Illinois. Wichita St. finished 2nd in the leage at 12-6 (20-9 overall, RPI 46), but fell apart down the stretch, losing 6 of their last 8 games. Bottom line: they don't have the impressive non-conference profile that N. Iowa did and just lost to both them and Creighton. SMS made an impressive run to the MVC finals but will probably end up in the NIT considering that they were swept by both N. Iowa and Wichita St. Wins over S. Illinois and Miami (OH) and a regular season sweep of Creighton are impressive, but might not be enough for the Bears (18-12, 10-8, RPI 49).

With just over a day of basketball left to be played before selection Sunday, the bubble continues to shrink. Right now I have 58 teams as locks, leaving 7 spots for everyone else. But its Championship week, so anything can happen!

The last two years, I've correctly predicted 64 of the 65 teams in the Big Dance (Utah St. got the shaft last year!). Three years ago, I was a perfect 65/65 and four years ago 64/65. I have to say my 257/260 is one better than ESPN.com bracketologist Joe Lunardi's 256/260 over the same time period. We'll see how I do this year. Here's a conference by conference breakdown of who's going dancing and who's on the bubble, followed by my current seeding projections for the NCAA:

ACC Locks (5): UNC, Wake Forest, Duke, GA Tech, NC State
Bubble: Maryland
A-10Locks (1): St. Joe's
Bubble: GW
Big EastLocks (6): BC, Syracuse, UConn, Pitt, Villanova, W. Virginia
Bubble: Notre Dame
Big 10Locks (4): Illinois, Mich St., Wisconsin, Minnesota
Bubble: Iowa
Big 12Locks (5): Kansas, Okla St., Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech
Bubble: Iowa St.
Big WestLocks (2): Pacific, Utah St.
Bubble: None
C-USALocks (3): Louisville, Cincinnati, Charlotte
Bubble: DePaul, UAB
HorizonLocks (1): UW-Milwaukee
Bubble: None
MACLocks (1): Ohio
Bubble: Buffalo, Miami (OH)
MVCLocks (2): So. Illinois, Creighton
Bubble: N. Iowa, Wichita St.
Mtn WestLocks (2): Utah, New Mexico
Bubble: None
Pac 10Locks (4): Washington, Arizona, Stanford, UCLA
Bubble: None
SECLocks (5): Kentucky, Alabama, Florida, LSU, Miss St.
Bubble: None
Sun BeltLocks (1): UL-Lafayette
Bubble: None
WACLocks (2): Nevada, UTEP
Bubble: None
WCCLocks (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Bubble: None

Syracuse Austin Chigaco Albuquerque
Seed East South Midwest West
CharlotteCharlotte IndianapolisNashville
1UNCDuke IllinoisWake Forest
16Delaware St. Farliegh-DickinsonMontanaPlay-in
8StanfordNevada CharlotteW. Virginia
9MinnesotaSt. Mary's NC StateUCLA
WorchestireWorchestire IndianapolisIndianapolis
5Texas TechWisconsin AlabamaMich St.
12VermontBuffalo ODUN. Iowa
4SyracuseBC UConnOklahoma
13PennUW-Milw. UL-LafayetteNew Mexico
ClevelandTucson Okla CityBoise
6VillanovaGA Tech UtahLSU
11Iowa St.Iowa OhioUTEP
3FloridaKansas ArizonaGonzaga
14WinthropUtah St. BuchnellNiagara
NashvilleCleveland Okla CityBoise
7So. IllinoisCincinnati PittPacific
10GWCreighton Miss St.Texas
2LouisvilleKentucky Okla St.Washington
15UCFChattanooga E. KentuckySE LA

Play-in is Oakland vs. Alabama A&M
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  • A Century of Sports looks at the best of sports in the 20th century. The top athletes, teams, games, moments, and achievements are listed and ranked. Who was named the greatest athlete of the century? Babe Ruth. Why? Because he simply dominated his sport when he played more than anyone else ever has. Ruth twice hit more HR in a season than any other team combined for! And even now, over 50 years after his death, Ruth still holds more major league records than anyone else in baseball.

    • Top Athlete: Babe Ruth
    • Top Dynasty: Boston Celtics, 1957-1969
    • Best Team, Season: 1927 New York Yankees
    • Greatest Game: 1987 NBA Finals Game 4, Lakers 107 Celtics 106
    • Greatest Moment: Mark McGwire's 62nd HR, Sept 8, 1998
    • Greatest Achievement: Wilt Chamberlain averages 50.4 ppg, 1962
    • Greatest Season: Babe Ruth, 1921


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    Big Mac Should Be In the Hall...Eventually

    It was not the greatest moment of the 20th century in sports. It was not one of the top 100 individual achievements or top 100 individual seasons of the century. He is not one of the top 100 athletes of the century. He can no longer be our generation's Babe Ruth. Why? Because he cheated. Plain and simple. Mark McGwire all but admitted to using steroids during his career by refusing to answer any questions about his past in front of Congress. Imagine if it came out that Houston threw the game against NC State? If it was found out that Bobby Thompson and Hank Aaron corked their bats? McGwire retired a living legend; a lock for the hall of fame on the first ballot; a member of the all-century team. Now, four years later he's simply a punchline; a huge part of the biggest black eye in baseball since the Black Sox scandal.

    He used to be compared to Babe Ruth and Paul Bunyan. In front of Congress, he was compared to Enron. And in the future, he will likely be compared to Gaylord Perry. A couple of months after his former Bash Brother, Jose Canseco, wrote a tell-all book admitting steroid use and accusing McGwire and others, and one week after a report came out linking McGwire to an FBI investigation on steroids, McGwire was subpoened to testify in front of Congress along with Canseco, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, and Curt Schilling. Palmeiro vehemently denied ever using steroids. Sosa's lawyer read a carefully prepared statement saying that he never used any illegal performance enhancing substances. Sandwiched in between the two, Mark McGwire for all intents and purposes plead the 5th, choosing not to incriminate himself. He consistently refused to talk about the past and, even more telling, when asked if he thought using steroids was cheating, he responded "that's not for me to decide." Big Mac even refused to discuss his motivation for including Andro, a legal supplement at the time, in his workout regiment back in 1998. He constantly said that he wants to do everything he can do to "turn this from a negative thing into a positive thing" and even pledged to turn some of the focus of his foundation for abused children to preventing steroid use in teens after hearing the earlier testimony of several parents whose sons had committed steroid-induced suicides. Yet no matter how he tried to frame it, the lasting impression of the Congressional hearings was the shocking revelation that the one time home run king had been juicing during his career.

    I believe Palmeiro when he denies steroid use. Canseco admitted that he used steroids and wouldn't have been an all-star without them. But then, there were rumours of Canseco juicing as early as 15 years ago. Despite all appearances, Sosa claimed to have never used steroids, but then again his statement was very carefully worded by his lawyer...for instance he could easily have used substances legal in the Dominican Republic or Haiti while out of the country in the offseason and still not have perjured himself. Whether he did or not is irrelevant though; he was caught corking his bat and is thus a cheater as well. Combined with Barry Bonds's leaked grand jury testimony, this means that every season of more than 61 home runs was achieved through cheating, including McGwire's top two home run seasons of 1998 and 1999. It is so sad to see a living legend fall so far so fast; to see an American hero, an icon for a generation reduced to a joke in a matter of hours.

    So, its clear-cut, right? McGwire cheated. He wouldn't have gotten the home run record without the juice. He wouldn't be in the 500 club without a little chemical help. Wrong. It's anything but clear-cut, in either direction. Yes, Mark McGwire cheated. But so did Gaylord Perry, a known spit-baller, who is currently in the Hall of Fame. How can you elect Perry and leave out such icons as McGwire and Bonds? Furthermore, yes, again McGwire cheated, but so did between 20 and 50% of all major leaguers in his era, the steroid era. How do you separate out which ones did and which didn't? How do you calculate just how many homers that roids added to McGwire's totals? If they added 30 feet to his HRs in 1998, he would still have hit around 65 probably. The bottom line is that a large percentage of players were using steroids during that time, but McGwire was the only one (aside from Bonds 3 years later) to hit 70 home runs. McGwire and Bonds were among the best players in baseball as cheaters, but they would still have been among the best if no one was cheating.

    Clearly, McGwire wasn't using steroids when he set the PAC-10 record for HRs while at USC. Neither was he on steroids as a 6'5 225 lb ROY, blasting 49 HRs in 1987 and shattering the rookie record by 11. We really don't know when he started juicing. He started his career by becoming the first player in major league history to hit 30 or more HRs in his first four seasons (Albert Pujols has since become the 2nd). Did he start using after his career low point in 1991, a season in which he batted .201 while hitting only 22 HRs and sat out the last game of the season to avoid finishing below the Mendoza line? Or maybe while rehabing after his injury-plagued 1993 and '94 seasons? The main point is though, that McGwire was a great HR hitter before he used steroids and would have been certainly in the 400 HR club and maybe the 500 HR club even without steroids. Take out his injury problems and he would have easily hit 600 HR even without steroids. Like Bonds, McGwire was a Hall of Famer even without juicing. Which makes it that much sadder and that much more nonsensical that he did use steroids. Why would you resort to cheating when you're already one of the best?

    Remember 1998. Remember how magical it was at the time. McGwire was expected to break the record that season after hitting 58 the season before. He homered in his first four games and had 37 by the all-star break. He had 55 going into September and hit two in a game twice in a row on September 1st and 2nd against the Marlins to reach 59. He hit #60 with the ball marked #3, Ruth's number. That home run traveled 381 feet. On the next business day, the Dow Jones went up a record 381 points. He hit #61 on his Dad's 61st birthday. You just can't make this stuff up! He was born on October 1st, the same day Maris had hit #61 two years earlier. And then #62 came on that magical night of September 8, 1998 against arch-rivals Sammy Sosa and the Cubs, on the last home game before an extended road trip, in front of his parents, his son, and the Maris family! Sosa would later hit #66 on the last Friday of the season, passing McGwire...for about 45 minutes. McGwire responded by homering his next time up and added two more on Saturday. He hit #69 in the 3rd inning of the last game of the season, by then assuring that he would finish with the record. And then he came up again in the 7th inning, in what everyone knew would be his last at bat of the season, and drove #70 over the left field wall!

    Remember 1998. Not just the home runs and eerie storybook timing, but the way it captivated a nation. Mark McGwire was on the front page of the newspaper, not the sports section, every day. He was the top news story every night. Every at bat, thousands of flash bulbs would light up all over the stadium. Fans got to the ballpark hours before the game just to watch the spectacle that was McGwire taking BP: the greatest show on Earth. Said Tom Pagnozzi, "I saw something like this on TV when I was a kid. They called themselves the Beatles." Fans held up "hit it here, Mark" signs at football games! When he hit #69, the fans picked up the cheer two blocks away at the football stadium and were so loud they caused a delay of game penalty on their own team! As Big Mac entered the stretch run in September, every single Cardinals game was on national TV. It was so big that it replaced Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky as the top story. Bruce Springsteen came to see McGwire hit #60. The prime minister of Japan wrote McGwire a fan letter. The president of the Czech Republic talked about him in a visit to the White House. According to teammate John Mabry, more reporters converged on him "than if Elvis found Jimmy Hoffa's body." He invented the road curtain-call! He got a standing ovation for grounding out to end a 7-6 loss...in a game in which he had homered twice earlier. Opposing fans would boo their own pitchers if McGwire was thrown a ball. And when he hit the ball, he crushed it! His home runs traveled so far that they caused Sandy Alomar Jr. to speculate that one blast off the scoreboard in Cleveland would have hit him on the back of the head if it hadn't hit the scoreboard: "If it hadn't hit the scoreboard," Alomar said, "it would have traveled all the way around the world -- and hit me on the back of the head." After #62, that most magical of moments, McGwire leaped into the stands to embrace the children of Maris, the man whose record he had broken. He seemed a legend come to life, a truly Ruthian persona, larger than Jordan, larger than Bonds, larger than Gretzky, larger than Tiger Woods, as he broke the most revered and cherished record in all of sports.

    Remember 1998. And then remember that all of those great memories are now forever tarnished by steroids. The magic is gone, the thrills we thought would last a lifetime shattered by the realization that McGwire cheated. At least Bonds has always been upfront about being a prick. Remember 1998 and feel bad for the fans that caught HR balls #54-61. They were all caught up in McGwire fever and returned the home run balls to McGwire, when they could have sold them for tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars, at least. #70 went for $3.2 million!

    Nevertheless, McGwire and Bonds have both earned a place in Cooperstown. We always knew they'd end up there. We just always figured they'd end up next to the Babe. Instead, they're next to Gaylord Perry and maybe someday Pete Rose. They're no longer sure-thing, first ballot hall of famers. In fact, they don't deserve to get in on the first ballot. They should be let in eventually, but not in the first year of eligibility. That honor is reserved for players that achieved Ruthian careers without resorting to cheating. Should they then be let in on the second try? The third? Try if and when they avoid the mistake Pete Rose made; if they come clean and admit steroid use instead of denying it as Rose denied betting on baseball for so long. They saved baseball, but they also gave it its biggest black eye since the Black Sox scandal in the process. And what of the man whose record they broke? What of Roger Maris? His accomplishment looms even greater than ever in the wake of McGwire-gate. How can you now let McGwire and Bonds in the Hall of Fame and deny the last man to legitimately hold the record? The reasons for keeping Maris out have been repeated ad nauseam: he only played 12 years, didn't have a long period of sustained greatness, only batted .260. However, any man that is still an icon of his sport 37 years after his retirement, 20 years after his death, certainly deserves to be in the Hall. In fact the Hall needs Maris. He has meant so much to this game, asterisk or not. His record stood the true test of time, lasting three years longer than Ruth's, and if not for a trio of cheaters, could still be standing. Maris was a 2-time MVP, won 3 World Series rings (2 with the Yankees and 1 with the Cardinals), and had three straight 30-HR, 100-RBI seasons in a time when that meant something more than you'd taken your pills and shots every day. He got penalized throughout his career because he wasn't Ruth or Mantle. He can never be Ruth. No one can. But he was the man that broke Ruth's record. He was no Mickey Mantle either, but he was the man who beat out the Mick two straight years for the MVP.

    Yes, McGwire and Bonds deserve to be in the Hall of Fame, eventually. But they'll be next to Gaylord Perry. Maris deserves to be next to Ruth and Mantle.
    2001 World Series
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