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Bracketology 2007: Titletown, Tinseltown, Tobacco Road, and The Forty Year Old Freshman

February 27, 2007
March is just around the corner as Championship week gets into full swing this Thursday with Arch Madness, the MVC tournament and some teams are finally deciding to create some separation between themselves and the rest of the bubble. Syracuse picked up a huge win over Georgetown last night that should punch their ticket to the Big Dance. Meanwhile other teams such as Clemson and Oklahoma St that seemed mortal locks a month ago continue to fade.

Ohio State and geriatric looking freshman Greg Oden look to move up to a solid #1 seed after downing Wisconsin by a point over the weekend to clinch the Big 10 title. Over in Tinseltown, UCLA has the #1 seed in the West all but locked up and despite their 5th loss, the #1 in the East is still Carolina's to lose over on Tobacco Road. Yet all eyes are on the center of the collegiate sports world, Titletown USA aka Gainesville, Florida, as the mighty Gators are the first defending national champion since Arizona in 1998 to return all five starters and are seeking to become the first defending national champion since Duke in 2002 to earn an #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Despite two losses in their last thee games, the #1 in the South is still the Gators' to lose -- if they win their last two regular season games at Tennessee and versus Kentucky and win their third straight SEC Championship the #1 seed is theirs. Should any of the above teams slip up however, Wisconsin, Kansas, and Texas A&M are waiting in the wings, trying to jump up to a #1 seed.

After a down year last season, the ACC is on its way back -- although led by some very unfamilar names. Tied atop the ACC standings with UNC are Virginia and even more surprisingly VA Tech. Along with Boston College (1/2 game back) and surging Duke and Maryland, the ACC has six locks that should all get 7 seeds or better. Both UNC and Duke are very young so we'll have to see how they handle the pressure of the NCAA tournament. The Tarheels have stumbled a bit of late, while the Blue Devils had an earlier stretch of 4 straight losses that dropped them out of the top 25 for the first time since 1996, ending the second longest (to UCLA) run of consecutive weeks in the AP top 25 at 200. For just the second time since 1997, the Blue Devils haven't been ranked #1 at any point this season and will also fail to receive a #1 seed for only the second time since 1997. During that amazing stretch, the Blue Devils have won 7 of the last 8 ACC Tournaments and have won either or both the ACC regular season or Tournament championship each of the last 10 seasons! Without JJ Redick and Shelden Williams, can they continue that trend by winning the ACC Tournament this season? They must find a consistent go-to scorer for that to happen. It could be DeMarcus Nelson, the only upperclassman on the roster, who is able to create his own shot off the dribble; or maybe Josh McRoberts, the big man who needs to sometimes look to score first instead of pass; or maybe either of Duke's dynamic backcourt of sophomore point guard Greg Paulus and freshman Jon Scheyer, the heir apparent to Redick. Duke will also be trying to extend its amazing streak to 10 consecutive trips to the Sweet 16 and if one of the above players can step up their game to that next level, I certainly wouldn't want to be the team standing in their way!

After Clemson's meteoric collapse, two teams remain on the ACC bubble: GA Tech (18-10, 6-8, RPI 51) and Florida St (18-11, 6-9, RPI 48). Both bring solid resumes to the table and are among the last teams in ... for now, which gives the ACC 8 bids, tying the Big East's record (and from a conference with 4 fewer teams too). The Jackets must get at least one of their last two vs UNC and BC plus a first round tournament win. Both would guarantee a bid when combined with a big road win over Memphis and a home win over Duke. Tech has to be above FSU in the ACC pecking order since they have overall similar profiles and Tech swept the 'noles. FSU still has a strong claim though if they can beat Miami to get to 7-9 in conference and then win a game in the ACC tournament. They have a road win over Duke and a home win over Florida to their credit.

Meanwhile, the Big East, which got 8 bids last year is sharply down overall this season, but still has 8 teams at least in the mix. After a huge win over conference leader Georgetown on Monday night, Syracuse looks to be the sixth lock from the league. Georgetown and Pitt will likely be fighting it out in the Big East tournament for a #2 or #3 seed in the NCAA while Louisville has been one of the hottest teams in the country of late and has gone from the wrong side of the bubble to contending for a protected seed. Notre Dame and Marquette are also both solidly in despite Marquette's recent struggles. Syracuse (21-8, 10-5, RPI 49) should likely be in regardless of what they do against Villanova (7-7, 18-9, RPI 22), who may be in bigger need of getting that win, but they should win a game in the Big East tournament to make sure. West Virginia will have their chance tonight at Pittsburgh to claim a bid -- but if they fail to pull the upset they are likely bound for the NIT. DePaul is definitely on the outside looking in and would probably have to make a run to the Big East Finals to get an at-large bid.

The Big 10 and PAC 10 have bounced back from some recent down seasons, particularly the PAC 10 which looks to get 6 bids for the first time in several years. Behind UCLA, the surprising Washington State seems to be in line for a protected seed and Oregon, USC, and Arizona aren't too far behind. Stanford (17-10, 9-7, RPI 40) can lock up their ticket to the dance with a win over last place Arizona St regardless of what the do against Arizona in the regular season finale. 10 wins in the PAC 10 should be enough for the Cardinal this season, unlike last year. Meanwhile, the Big 10 is hoping to sneak out six bids of their own. After big boys Ohio St and Wisconsin, Michigan St has recently locked up a bid with back to back wins over Wisconsin and Indiana and is climbing the seeding chart. The Hoosiers (18-9, 8-6, RPI 23) are still solidly in despite losing 4 of 6 and Illinois (21-9, 9-6, RPI 32) needs only win at Iowa to guarantee a spot in the field of 65. Iowa at 8-6 doesn't seem to have a chance to make it without winning the Big 10 tournament due to a very poor nonconference showing (losses to Alabama, Arizona St., N. Iowa, and Drake). Michigan and Purdue are both at 7-7 and trying to get that 6th bid, but Purdue's path is significantly easier. The Boilermakers can get to 9-7 with wins over Minnesota and NW. That combined with a first round Big 10 win might be enough. Michigan's road is much tougher, but they'll have their chance -- beat Michigan St. and Ohio St and they're definitely in. Win one and it'll come down to their performance in the Big 10 tourney.

The Big 12 is solid at the top but really lacks any depth. Kansas and Texas A&M are both prime contenders to make the Final Four and both are currently looking at #2 seeds with a shot at a #1 if someone else slips up. Texas has been coming on very strong of late behind super talented freshman Kevin Durant, who will likely be the first freshman in a long time to win national player of the year. Durant was less-hyped than Oden coming into college (and looks to be about half Oden's age) but has been more than twice the player so far and looks like he has the potential to lead Texas Carmelo Anthony style to the Final Four. Texas Tech is squarely on the bubble, but for now its big wins over A&M (twice) and Kansas get the Red Raiders in. They should take care of business in their last two games vs Baylor and at Iowa St to make sure though. Kansas State (20-9, 9-5, RPI 55) is on the outside looking in, but has two winnable games remaining. If they can travel to Stillwater and get a W vs Okla St and then follow that up with a home win over the Sooners, its impossible to imagine a Big 12 team with 11 wins getting left out. If they only get to 10-6 though, they'll be sweating it big time! Speaking of the Cowboys, Oklahoma St has had the biggest collapse this side of Clemson. They looked to be a lock and a top 4 seed just a month ago but are now staring at an NIT bid with a 5-8 conference record and an RPI plummetting to #51.

The Missouri Valley is unlikely to match last season's 4 bids, due in large part to the bottom half of the league's marked improvement, cannibalizing some of the top teams. But the Valley has three bids locked up for the third straight year and four is still possible depending on how Arch Madness plays out. The Salukis are once again the class of the league and will be headed to the NCAAs for the sixth straight season. Ranked #11 and with an RPI of #4, they are looking at at least a 3 seed, possibly even a 2 if they win the MVC tournament! They should end up no lower than a four no matter what, which gives them an excellent chance to make the Sweet 16 and even the Elite 8. Don't be surprised if the Valley once again puts two teams in the Sweet 16 as both Creighton and Missouri St will be dangerous outs in the tournament. The Bears proved early this season that they can play with anyone, giving Wisconsin one of its four losses. Both could be seeded anywhere from 6 to 11 depending on Arch Madness. Bradley (19-11, 10-8, RPI 44) is the only other team that has a shot at an at-large bid, but the Braves may have to beat the Salukis in the MVC semis to punch their ticket. However, don't count out the possibility of UNI (which has been to three straight NCAAs) or Wichita St (who made the Sweet 16 last year and was ranked in the top 10 early this season following road wins at LSU, Syracuse, and George Mason) crashing the party in St. Louis and giving a fourth bid to the Valley.

After getting two teams into the Final Four last season, the SEC is back to its usual weak self this year, particularly the SEC West, which is as weak as its ever been. Aside from the mighty Gators, no SEC team is currently in position to receive a protected seed, although Vandy, Kentucky, and Tennessee are all potentially dangerous teams come tournament time. All three could finish anywhere between a 4 seed and a 10 seed depending on the last week of the regular season and the SEC tournament. Georgia (16-10, 8-6, RPI 53) has the best chance to give the SEC 5 bids, but must win either at Kentucky or home against Tennessee in its final two games to make the tournament. Right now the Bulldogs are on the outside looking in, where they'll remain if they end up with 13 losses, but winning one of those two coupled with a first round SEC win should be enough. Alabama (19-9, 6-8, RPI 41) has the best chance of any team out of the West to make the NCAAs. They are the only West team with an RPI better than 60 currently but will need to sweep the Mississippis and win a couple games in the SEC tournament to get a bid. Right now, it looks like the West will be completely shut out and the SEC will only get 4 bids overall, its lowest total in several years.

While the SEC as a whole isn't performing well, the Gators have a real chance to be the first team since '91-'92 Duke to repeat as national champions (and only the second since UCLA's run of 10 titles in 12 years)! Billy Donovan has done a remarkable job building a top-level program in Gainesville, as only Florida and Duke will have made the NCAA tournament with a 6 seed or better each of the past 9 seasons! As long as the Gators can stay focused, they present huge matchup problems for most other teams with their twin towers Joakim Noah and Al Horford on the inside (both average over 12 points and 8 rebounds per game). Throw very productive sixth man Chris Richard (5.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, double figures 3 of his last 5 games) and up and coming roookie Marreese Speights (4.5 points and 2.8 rebounds in only 6.3 minutes per game) and the Gators have probably the most dominant frontcourt in the country. What makes them even more deadly is that if you double down on anybody in the post, Florida has the firepower to light it up from beyond the arc with All-SEC point guard Taurean Green, All-SEC small forward Corey Brewer, and sharp shooters Lee Humphrey (10ppg and 46% on 164 3-point attempts) and Walter Hodge (6ppg and 53% on 55 3-point attempts). The Gators possess extraordinary balance as all 5 starters average between 10 and 13 ppg and they are extremely unselfish. These Gators embody what it is to be a team and aside from sickness, their only Achilles heel all season has been a lack of intensity in a few games. As long as they are playing their hardest, something one would reasonably expect them to do come tournament time, the Gators have to be the favorite to win it all with their tremendous firepower and versatility on offense (they lead the entire country in FG percentage) and their ability to shut down teams on defense. Corey Brewer in particular is a tremendous defender who completely shut down Aaron Afflalo in last year's championship game and Noah and Horford both average nearly 2 blocks per game.

The SEC's loss is the Mountain West's gain as the MWC looks to regain its status as one of the better leagues in the country. Traditionally, the MWC has had many college basketball powers including Utah, BYU, New Mexico, and UNLV. This season the conference may be in line for as many as four bids. Air Force, BYU, and UNLV have all locked up bids and are battling for the conference championship and seeding in the NCAA, while San Diego St (18-8, 9-5, RPI 46) has been making a late charge. The Aztecs are currently one of the last couple teams in the field but must win their last two conference games plus at least one game in the MWC tournament. If they want to feel any security, they'd better win two and make the MWC finals. Finally, the CAA is back in the multiple bid discussion after placing two teams including Cinderalla George Mason in the Big Dance last year. VCU is currently the conference leader but second place ODU (23-7, 15-3, RPI 34) has a very strong profile and is going to be in if they can make the CAA Finals. Third place Hofstra (21-8, 14-4, RPI 69) might have to win the automatic bid, but fourth place Drexel (21-7, 13-5, RPI 45) certainly has an argument with road wins over Villanova, Syracuse, and Creighton. Likely the Dragons will have to make the CAA Finals to get in, which could cost VCU a bid so the CAA will probably end up with 2 bids no matter what. The rest of the conferences are resigned to one bid barring an upset in their conference tournaments. Certainly Butler (24-5, 13-3, RPI 32) of the Horizon League is currently looking at a #6 seed and would get an at-large as would Nevada (25-2, 13-1, RPI 20) which is looking at a #3 seed. A little dicier is the case of Winthrop (21-4, 14-0, RPI 63) who despite wins at ODU and at Missouri St will probably have to at least reach the Big South Finals to secure an at-large bid. Similarly, Xavier (21-7, 11-3, RPI 33) may have to reach the A10 Finals to get an at-large bid.

Here's a conference by conference breakdown of who's going dancing and who's on the bubble, followed by my current seeding projections for the NCAA:

• Multiple team conference breakdown: ACC: 8; Big East: 7; PAC 10: 6; Big 10: 5; Big 12, SEC: 4; MVC: 3; CAA, Horizon, MWC, WAC: 2
• Played their way into locks this week:
• Played their way out of locks this week:
• New in the tourney:
• Dropping Out:
• Last 4 in: Stanford, ODU, FSU, Missouri St.
• Last 4 out: Drexel, Xavier, Purdue, West VA
• Next 4 out: Air Force, Arkansas, Kansas St., Michigan
• Moving up (+2 or more seeds):
• Moving down (-2 or more seeds):