Bracketology 2008: Bubblicious
Update: March 16, 2008
Pitt moves up to a 4 seed, switching places with Notre Dame. Kansas has
locked up the #1 seed in the Midwest by winning the Big XII championship
game. If Georgia hangs on to beat Arkansas, they will get a #14 seed in the
south. It is very close between Kentucky, Illinois State, and S. Alabama
as to who they bump. Kentucky might be hurt because they are in the same
conference but they are at the same time helped because Georgia is the team
who beat them and they are clearly on fire. The bottom line is that I think
the Kentucky name will be an extra tiebreaker with the selection committee,
at least subconsciously. I believe Illinois State has just a slightly better
profile than S. Alabama. However, the Jags have been getting a lot of
press and their loss to a very bad team was not nationally televised as
Illinois State's 30 point blowout to Drake was. Unfortunately their semifinal
win was not nationally televised and while it is more impressive to reach
the finals of the #8 RPI conference and lose to a top 12 team, even badly,
than to lose in the semifinals of the #15 RPI conference to a sub-100 team,
I think watching that blowout along with the mysterious good press S. Alabama
has been getting the past few weeks could be enough to subconsciously put
the Jags in ahead of the Redbirds. Therefore while I think the Redbirds
more deserving, I will put the Jags as the last team in as my projection
of what the committee will do should UGA steal a bid.
Update: March 15, 2008
What a crazy couple of days in the conference tournaments! We've had
everything from huge upsets to buzzer beaters to tornados! Yet through
it all, the bubble picture has amazingly cleared up quite a bit. The
biggest winners (as of now) are Illinois St. and S. Alabama who last
played a week ago and had to sit back and watch as team after team
had a chance to win their way past them. Yet team after team fell
early in their conference tournaments. On Thursday, nearly every
bubble team that could win a game to secure a bid lost that game. Even
Baylor fell to lowly Colorado in the 5/12 game, which would have put them
in a little bit of trouble if not for the fact that everyone else lost
too: Villanova, Dayton, Rhode Island, Maryland, Arizona, Oregon, Arizona
St., Florida, Ole Miss, New Mexico, and UAB.
Things got even crazier on Friday as a tornado damaged the roof of the
Georgia Dome, delaying the finish of the Miss St.-Alabama game, and
postponing the Kentucky-Georgia game to Saturday, forcing the winner
to play a day/night doubleheader between the QF and SF! Georgia pulled
off the upset behind a 360 degree spin move and 3-pointer by freshman
Zac Swansey with 1.2s left in OT (despite a bad no-call by the officials
on the ensuing inbounds pass), which is not good news for UK. Meanwhile,
Blake Hoffarber of Minnesota has become the next Christian Laettner --
he already won an ESPY a couple of years ago for a buzzer beater in
a state HS championship game that he made while sitting on his butt and
with 1.5 seconds left against Indiana, down one, he did it again! This
time, he caught a full-court pass near the FT line, spun left, and
hit a Laettneresque shot for the win!
Back to the buble, Texas A&M was one team at least that played their way
into a lock on Friday and Temple joined them by taking the A10 auto
bid on Saturday. That brings the total to 57 locks and Arizona and Baylor
have done enough to feel pretty secure, which leaves only six spots.
Fighting for those six spots are 8 "Tier A" teams: VA Tech, St. Joe's,
Villanova, Ohio St., Oregon, Kentucky, Illinois St., and S. Alabama.
Which means all remaining "Tier B" teams, who did not do enough in their
conference tournaments to improve their resumes, are all out: Arizona St.
(RPI 83, 7th in the PAC 10 pecking order), VCU (0 top 50 wins, lost in
CAA semis), UMass, Dayton Florida, Ole Miss, UAB, and New Mexico (all lost
in the QF).
A closer look at the profiles of the 8 remaining bubble teams immediately
reveals that Oregon and St. Joe's are a cut above the rest. Both have
4 wins vs RPI top 50 teams and 8 wins vs the RPI top 100 (more than any
of the other bubble teams). Oregon's RPI is a little low at 58, but they
have a good SOS and wins over Stanford, at Kansas St., swept Arizona, and
beat ASU. That's two quality road wins and last weekend's sweep of the
Arizona schools was a nice finish to the regular season. St. Joe's
meanwhile made their conference final and has 2 wins over Xavier, beat
fellow bubble team Villanova head-to-head, beat Temple, and swept UMass.
That brings us down to the last four spots. Villanova's profile has
improved quite a bit since the last time they played with George Mason,
Temple, and Pitt all winning their conference tournaments.
Their profile is just a hair behind Oregon and
St. Joe's. Their RPI is a tad high at 49 but they are 3-6 vs the top 50
and 7-9 vs the top 100. They have very good wins over Pitt and Conn.
and have also won at Temple and beaten WVU, George Mason, and the Cuse
twice out of three. Kentucky didn't do themselves any favors by losing
to Georgia. They need to hope they didn't remind the selection committee
too much of their early season struggles or that one game at Vandy, but
they do have some big wins on their resume and have finished strong. With
everyone else losing as well, they should be safe. UK finished 12-4 in
the SEC and while their RPI is very high at 60, they have the #18 SOS.
They are a pretty impressive 4-6 vs the RPI top 50, though a less impressive
5-10 vs the top 100 overall. The San Diego loss doesn't look quite as
bad anymore and 9-3 is a very strong finish. The bottom line is that
none of the teams below them can match wins over Tenn., Vandy, and Arkansas.
Thus, the final two spots come down to VT, OSU, ISU, and USA. Ohio State
has probably the best two wins out of the group, vs Purdue and Michigan
State. Unfortunately for them, it won't be enough. Their only other
two quality wins are over Syracuse and Florida and they have two sub-150
RPI losses. They are only 5-7 in their last 12 and 5-10 road+neutral.
They have a good SOS at 16 but a mediocre at best RPI of 48. The bottom
line is that 2-10 vs the top 50 and 6-10 vs the top 100 just isn't going
to cut it. Meanwhile, VT's profile is even worse. With all due respect
to Seth Greenberg, yes, your Hokies are one of the best 65 teams in the
country, but they are not one of the best 34 teams that have not secured
an automatic bid. They gave UNC everything they wanted and if they'd
been able to hit one more shot and pull it out, they would be in ... but
as it is, their only top 50 win of the season was against Miami. A 9-7
ACC record looks good but due to unbalanced scheduling, its very deceptive.
They have a questionable at best RPI of 55, are 1-7 vs the top 50, 6-10
vs the top 100, and their next best wins after Miami are a sweep of Maryland.
Which brings us to Illinois St. and S. Alabama, who have nearly identical
profiles. ISU was 23-9 (13-5 MVC) with an RPI of 33 and an SOS of 73. USA
was 24-6 (16-2 Sun Belt) with an RPI of 37 and an SOS of 125. ISU is 5-5
vs the top 100 and USA is 4-3. USA is the one team on this list to not have
lost to a sub-150 RPI team and they are an impressive 9-5 road+neutral (ISU
is an also good 9-8). Both have won 9 of their last 12 games and USA has
the best win between them, over Miss St. early in the season. After that
though, their only other top 100 wins are a sweep of WKU and a win over San
Diego. ISU played in the always tough MVC and while they lost 3 times to
Drake, they swept 3rd place SIU and 4th place Creighton. Those are two
quality road wins at very tough venues. They also beat Horizon runner-up
Wright St. in a bracket busters game. I give the Redbirds the tiebreaker
because they won 2 games in their conference tournament to reach the
finals and lost (albeit badly) to a very good Drake team while the Jags
flamed out in the semis of the Sun Belt tourney. However, both of them
have profiles that clearly outpace those of OSU and VT and they are the
last two teams in the field ... barring upsets by Illinois or Georgia.
Finally, the #1 seed picture has also cleared up with Tennessee's loss to
Arkansas in the SEC QF. UNC is the top overall seed if they beat Clemson
and still a #1 seed even if they lose (although Clemson could move all the
way up to a 3 seed in that scenario). Memphis is second in the pecking
order, followed by UCLA, and the final #1 seed will goto the winner of
Kansas vs Texas in the Big XII finals tomorrow.
This will be the first time since a couple guys named Magic and Bird left
for the NBA that both of the finalists from the previous year miss the
NCAA tournament as Florida and Ohio State will both be in the NIT. But
I'd love to see a rematch in Madison Square Garden!
March 3, 2008
March is here, Championship week is just around the corner, and we already
have our first team in the field of 65 as Cornell has wrapped up the Ivy
League. They become the first team not named Princeton or Penn to come
out of the Ivy League in about 20 years! Meanwhile, no one seems to want
to join them in the big dance. The Ivy League still doesn't have a
conference tournament, but for everyone else the conference tournaments
are going to be more important than ever as the bubble continues to grow!
West Virginia picked up a huge win over Pitt tonight that should allow
them to breathe easier, but you never know with the way this season has
gone. Kent State seemed like the only team wanting to win its way in
last week, yet promptly gave back all the good will they got by their
win over St. Mary's by losing to Bowling Green. They can't afford
another loss before at least the MAC semis if they want an at-large bid.
Moving from the bubble to the top of the brackets for a moment, it looks
like there are 7 teams battling it out over the next two weeks for the
four #1 seeds. Memphis has all but locked up a #1 seed as they seem
unlikely to be challenged at all before at least the C-USA finals (and
more likely not until the Sweet 16). They are currently joined by new
#1 UNC, their arch-rivals Duke, and UCLA. However these three have
much more tenuous holds on their spots as UCLA hosts a showdown with
#7 Stanford on Thursday, followed by the always epic Duke-UNC II on
Saturday night (once again with both ranked in the top 5). Waiting
to claim the spots of anyone who slips up are Tennessee, Kansas, and
even Texas who despite the loss to Texas Tech could still claim a
#1 seed by winning out and beating Kansas for the Big XII championship.
The ACC is as usual the #1 conference by RPI. Despite this, they could
get as few as four bids though five seems most likely. The ACC is as
always very strong at the top with Duke and UNC tied at 12-2, but
after that the strong RPI comes largely from having a bunch of pretty
good teams with no bad teams. The one other exception being Oliver
Purnell's Clemson Tigers, who picked up a huge signature win at Maryland
last night, battling back from a 20-point second half deficit to win
on a 3-pointer at the buzzer by freshman Terrance Oglesby! The Tigers
have certainly punched their ticket to the Big Dance and are sitting
at a 6 seed right now with the chance to move up if they continue
to finish strong. There will be no repeat of last year's collapse
down the stretch, and based on the Maryland game, these Tigers are a
threat to be a real sleeper team capable of making a charge to the
Sweet 16 or even Elite 8. Following the Tigers are a trio of bubble
teams: Miami, Maryland, and Virginia Tech. Miami is in by far the
best shape of the three with a strong computer profile and a signature
win (over Duke) and only needs to split its last two games to go 8-8 in
conference and lock up a bid. Maryland has the signature win (at UNC)
but also has a couple bad losses and hence a weak computer profile. They
missed a chance last night to lock up a bid with a win over Clemson and
now must make sure they win their next two games (including their first
ACC tournament game). VA Tech has the best ACC record of the three at
8-6 but lacks a single win over a top 50 team (0-5). With three bad
losses already on their resume, they likely need to win three more games
to get their dancing shoes. Wake Forest saw its bubble busted afer
its third straight loss (this one to GA Tech).
Things could get very interesting with a possible 3rd Duke-UNC matchup
in the ACC tournament finals. If either team were to sweep, they would
likely be the #1 overall seed. If they split, they could still both end
up with #1 seeds. An important consideration is whichever of the two
gets the higher #1 seed will likely not have to leave the state of NC
until the Final Four. Duke's amazing streaks of 9 straight Sweet 16s
and 10 straight years winning either or both of the ACC regular season
and tournament championships were both snapped last year, but fresh off
his 800th career win, look for Coach K to start a new streak this year
as they attempt to get their 9th #1 seed in the past 11 years! It
won't be easy though as Carolina is back at full strength and has the
likely national player of the year in super-stud Tyler Hansbrough. These
two teams have never met in the NCAA tournament but both are certainly
capable of making the Final Four run necessary for that to happen this
year.
Meanwhile, the Big East, the resident 16-team monster, could get as many
as 8 or 9 teams into the tournament. Co-leaders Georgetown and Louisville
are fighting it out for a possible #2 seed (and no one has been hotter
than the Cardinals as of late) but Notre Dame and Connecticut, fresh with a
new supply of reinstated convicts, are hot on their heels. All four of
them could end up with a protected (top-4) seed and all four are certainly
capable of a run to the Final Four, although I'm not sure any are quite
good enough to end up cutting down the nets in San Antonio. Marquette
(20-7, 11-6, RPI 18) has also locked up a bid to the tournament as has
Pitt (9-8, 20-9, RPI 26) despite tonight's loss to WVU (10-7, 20-9, RPI 35).
The Mountaineers, as previously mentioned, can feel pretty secure about
getting a 7th bid for the Big East. Syracuse (7-9, 17-12, RPI 56) and
Villanova (7-9, 17-11, RPI 59) still have a lot of work to do and must
both get to .500 in-conference and then win at least one game in the Big
East tournament. Two wouldn't be a bad idea. Villanova has the easier
path as Syracuse hosts Marquette next weekend. It would be a shame if
the bad call by the referees at the end of the G'town-Nova game kept the
Wildcats out, but I think the selection committee will give Villanova a
little extra consideration because of this.
The Big 10 is the most clear-cut case of any of the major conferences.
Four teams are locks, all with seeds of 5 or better as of now: Wisconsin,
Purdue, Indiana, and Michigan State. Wisconsin might still be in line
for a #2 seed should they win out. Ohio State is the only bubble team
and things are starting to look grim for the Buckeyes. They have lost
four straight to drop to 8-8 in conference and have yet to beat a top
50 RPI team (0-9 overall). They close the season with Purdue and
Michigan State and they might need to win two of three (including the
4/5 matchup with Michigan State in the Big 10 QF) to punch their ticket.
Conversely, the Big 10 has become a total mess over the past couple
of weeks. Its solid at the top with Kansas and Texas fighting it
out for the regular season championship and a possible 1-seed, but
beyond that nothing is clear. A resurgent Baylor (8-6, 19-8, RPI 33) seems
to be the unlikely third team in after following a 4 game losing streak
with a 3 game winning streak, but must make sure they at least get
a split of their last two (Texas A&M, at Texas Tech) to feel truly safe.
Meanwhile, Kansas St. (8-6, 17-10, RPI 43) is in full meltdown mode,
having lost 4 in a row (including to Nebraska) despite the best efforts
of super-frosh Michael Beasley. Luckily for the Wildcats, they finish
with lowly Colorado and Iowa State, so they should be able to right the
ship. 10 wins would most certainly get them in the NCAAs. Continuing
the schizophrenia, Oklahoma (7-7, 19-8, RPI 30) followed up a bad loss
to Nebraska by pulverizing Texas A&M 64-37. The computer profile is
strong and they have some quality wins, so the likely only need a split
of their last two games plus a win in the first round of the Big XII
tournament. Texas A&M however, seems to be in much more serious trouble
after the aforementioned blowout loss followed a 98-54 shellacking
of Texas Tech. The good news for the Aggies is that at 20-8 (7-7,
RPI 47), they likely need only split their last two and win a first
round Big XII tournament game just like Oklahoma. The bad news is that
their last two are at Baylor and home to Kansas. Meanwhile, Texas
Tech put their name back in the conversation with a big upset over Texas
but is now done after a 109-51 beatdown at the hands of Kansas tonight.
Shall we recap? Texas Tech loses by 44 to A&M, beats
#5 Texas, and loses by 58 to Kansas. Texas A&M loses at home to Nebraska,
beats Texas Tech by 44, and loses to Oklahoma by 27. Kansas State is now
8-6 after a 7-1 start in conference. Oklahoma followed a bad 18 point
loss to Nebraska with a 27 point win over Texas A&M. And Baylor wins
their first four in conference, then goes 1-6, only to bounce back by
winning 3 straight. Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?
The Missouri Valley is a bit down this year after several teams lost
a lot of seniors, but still has the firepower to make some noise well
into March. The Drake are one of the big stories this year, running
away with the MVC crown at 15-3 (23-4 overall, RPI 15) and look to get
around a 6-seed. They seem to be wearing down a little bit but if their
win over Butler is any indication, the Drake may be able to give the
Valley its 4th Sweet 16 team in the past 3 season. The MVC has received
multiple bids every year since 1998 and that trend looks to continue.
Illinois State (13-5, 21-8, RPI 36) is on the bubble but has put itself
in good position by finishing 2nd place in the Valley by 2 games. Its
hard to see them failing to make the NCAA tournament unless they lose
in the MVC quarterfinals. Meanwhile, two Valley stallwards, Southern
Illinois (17-13, 11-7, RPI 48) and Creighton (19-8, 10-8, RPI 50) may
have to win Arch Madness to get a ticket to the Big Dance. However,
both are very capable and its worth remembering that 9 years in a row,
the MVC regular season champion has not won the tournament.
The ACC might be #1 in the RPI but the PAC 10, minus Oregon State,
might be the best conference and they could prove it by getting as
many as 7 teams in the field of 65. Of course they could also get
as few as four. That's how fluid the bubble is at the moment. UCLA,
Stanford, and Wazzu have all locked up bids at this point with UCLA
hoping for a #1 seed and Stanford for a #2. At 9-7 (18-10 overall, RPI
41), USC seems like it just needs to split its final two against the
bay area teams to lock up the 4th bid. That's where things get dicey.
Can the team with the #1 SOS be left out? If they finish below .500
in-conference, maybe. Arizona (7-9, 16-12, RPI 25) still has good
computer numbers but the conference record is a bit troubling. They
finish with a road trip to the Oregon schools and winning both would
certainly not only get them in, but get them a decent seed too. What
if they only win one? They had better win their PAC 10 QF game to
make sure in that case. Arizona State (8-8, 18-10, RPI 67) also finishes
with the Oregon schools on the road. While they are a game up on their
in-state rivals, they also have a much weaker computer profile. A split
and a PAC 10 QF win would probably be enough but do they really want to
take the chance? 10-8 would remove all doubt. And finally, there's
Oregon (7-9, 16-12, RPI 57). The Ducks must sweep the Arizona schools
to get back into the picture. It all makes for a very interesting weekend
up in Oregon.
The SEC is very weak and well, rather confusing this year. Except of
course for Tennessee, who is right in the thick of the debate for #1
seeds. The Vols can't afford any slip-ups along the way though. Vandy
is also solidly in with a good chance at a protected seed. While only
9-5 in-conference, they are 24-5 overall with an RPI of #10. After that,
it gets a lot murkier. Mississippi State created some separation for
themselves on Saturday with a win on the road over the two-time defending
national champion Florida Gators, bringing them to 11-3 and locking up
the SEC West championship. But how's this for a reversal of fortune:
entering SEC play, Miss St. was 9-5 with an RPI of 121 while Ole Miss was
14-0 with an RPI of 10. In SEC play though, the Bulldogs are 11-3 as
mentioned, while Ole Miss is a pathetic 5-9 and looks to be this year's
Clemson. Ironically, Clemson was the best win on their schedule this year.
Arkansas (8-6, 19-9, RPI 38) likely locked up a 4th bid with their win
over Vandy and now just must take one of two against Ole Miss and Auburn.
But is that it? Isn't there something missing here? Did we really just
talk about all of the SEC teams that have locked up bids or are close to
doing so without once mentioning the Mighty Gators, the two-time defending
national champions or the Kentucky Wildcats, winner of 7 national titles
and one of the 6 basketball blue-bloods (UNC, Duke, UCLA, Kansas, Indiana)?
After losing Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Corey Brewer, Taurean Green, Lee
Humprhey, and sixth-man extrordinaire Chris Richard, the Gators have a
very talented but very young team with no seniors, 1 junior, 3 sophomores,
and 5 freshmen. They will be very good, especially with another stellar
class on the way in next year but right now Billy Donovan's streak of
9 straight NCAA appearances is on the line and certainly his streak of
9 straight NCAAs with a 6 seed or higher (only Duke has a longer active
streak) will be broken. Let's take a look at the Gators' profile:
21-8, 8-6 SEC, RPI 60. Looks good until you get to the RPI number, right?
Here's why: SOS #105. Donovan smartly scheduled light in the non-conference
season to bring his young Gators along slowly, but this costs them in
the computer numbers and inflated their record. The Gators have only one
win against a top-50 opponent (Vandy) and will need to get another signature
win to avoid becoming the first defending champions since Kansas (1989) to
miss the NCAAs. In fact, with Ohio State in trouble too, this could be
the first time that both finalists missed the NCAAs the next season since
a couple of guys named Magic and Bird turned pro. The good thing for UF
is that they will have their chances. #4 Tennessee comes to Gainesville
on Wednesday night and UF travels to the Rupp in what could be an elimination
game this weekend. The Gators likely need to win 3 more games to return
to the Big Dance -- either sweep this week and win their first round game
against likely Auburn or Alabama or split this week and win two games,
including a rematch against Miss St, to get to the SEC semis.
Speaking of the possible elimination game with UK, they have had an even
more bizarre season. It started with home losses to Gardner-Webb and
San Diego and a non-conference RPI of 204 (6-7 record) but since then,
the Wildcats have been 10-4 in conference. Even withouth star freshman
Patrick Patterson, it would be hard to see the Wildcats being left out
if they can make it to 12-4 and win at least one game in the SEC tourney
but if they should fall short of that at all -- their RPI and overall
record are still not in good shape as it is.
Meanwhile the MWC is charging hard while the A-10 is fading fast. Just
a couple weeks ago, it looked like the A-10 was back and could get
3, possibly 4 teams into the Big Dance for the first time in years. Now,
two seems more likely. Xavier has certainly locked up a protected seed
and could be as high as a #2. URI and St. Joe's hit the skids at the
wrong time though and could be done for unless they can turn it around
quickly and make a deep run in the A-10 tourney. On the other hand,
UMass (8-6, 19-9, RPI 39) was left for dead two weeks ago and are now
riding a four game winning-streak. They've put themselves in line for
the second bid. Dayton (6-8, 18-9, RPI 38) had a great non-conference
season with wins over Louisville and Pitt but there's no way a team
makes it into the NCAAs with a sub-.500 conference record in the A-10. The
Flyers had better win their next 4 if they have any chance of salvaging
an at-large bid. The A-10's loss is the MWC's gain as BYU and UNLV
continue to rack up the wins and New Mexico (22-7, 9-5, RPI 53) is
charging strong despite last week's 1-point loss to the Cougars. A home
game against UNLV at the Pit looms large for the Lobos this week, who might
have to win 4 straight to sweep this week and reach the MWC finals in order
to feel safe. BYU is already in and UNLV just needs one more win to
make it official.
Looking around the country at the smaller conferences, Gonzaga came up with
a huge win over St. Mary's to likely take the WCC regular season title
once again. Both the Zags and the Gaels are locks for the NCAAs and are
playing for seeding at this point (with the Zags currently a 6 and the Gaels
an 8). Memphis has once again dominated the lesser competition of C-USA,
running their record to 28-1 (14-0, RPI #2). Will anyone else from this
league make it in? UAB and possibly Houston are on the bubble, but UAB
has only played one game against a top 50 team all year (they lost to
Memphis) and meanwhile has 5 losses to sub-100 RPI teams. Their overall
profile doesn't sound so bad: 21-8, 11-3 C-USA, RPI 51, but when you compare
their resume to a Florida or a Villanova, it just doesn't stack up despite
the slightly higher RPI. Houston (21-7, 10-4, RPI 69) is in even worse
shape and also without a top 50 win although they only have one bad loss --
but it was a really bad one to ECU. Butler (27-3, 16-2 Horizon, RPI 20) has
put together another fantastic season and can expect between a 4 and 7 seed
depending on how they finish the season. No one else in the Horizon will
make it unless they can upset the Bulldogs to win the auto bid. Kent
State (23-6, 11-3, RPI 34) was looking like they really wanted to win
their way in after a huge bracket busters win over St. Mary's but following
that up with a loss to Bowling Green was not a very good idea. The Golden
Flashes are still in line for an at-large should they need it but their
margin of error is now much slimmer. They don't want to lose again before
the MAC semis to make sure. Davidson (22-6, 20-0, RPI 40) is an interesting
case. They played the big boys: Duke, UNC, UCLA, and NC State, and gave
a very respectable showing in all of those games. But they couldn't pull
off any wins to show for it. They are 20-0 in conference and one would
hope have done enough even playing in the SoCon that they would get an
at-large should they lose in the SoCon Finals but it seems likely that they
will render it a moot point and just win the auto bid outright. Finally,
S. Alabama (23-5, 16-2 Sun Belt, RPI 29) has put itself in a good position
for an at-large bid with a win over Miss St. and a sweep of conference rival
WKU should they lose to the Hilltoppers in the conference finals. Anything
short of this and they will likely be hosting a first round game in the
NIT though.
Here's a conference by conference breakdown of who's going
dancing and who's on the bubble, followed by my current seeding
projections for the NCAA:
| ACC |
Locks (4): UNC, Duke, Clemson, Miami
|
| Bubble: VA Tech |
| A-10 | Locks (2): Xavier, Temple |
| Bubble: St. Joe's, UMass, Dayton |
| Big East | Locks (7): Georgetown, Louisville,
ND, Conn., Marquette, Pitt, West VA
|
| Bubble: Villanova, Syracuse |
| Big 10 | Locks (4): Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan St.
|
| Bubble: Ohio St. |
| Big 12 | Locks (6): Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Kansas St., Baylor
|
| Bubble: None |
| C-USA | Locks (1): Memphis
|
| Bubble: None |
| Horizon | Locks (1): Butler |
| Bubble: None |
| MAC | Locks (1): Kent St. |
| Bubble: None |
| MVC | Locks (1): Drake
|
| Bubble: Illinois St. |
| Mtn West | Locks (2): BYU, UNLV |
| Bubble: None |
| Pac 10 | Locks (5): UCLA, Stanford, Wash St., USC, Arizona
|
| Bubble: Oregon, Arizona St. |
| SEC | Locks (4): Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Miss St., Arkansas
|
| Bubble: Kentucky |
| WCC | Locks (3): Gonzaga, St. Mary's, San Diego |
| Bubble: None |
|
Charlotte |
Houston |
Detroit |
Phoenix |
| Seed |
East |
South |
Midwest |
West |
| Raliegh | Little Rock |
Raliegh | Anaheim |
| 1 | UNC | Memphis |
Kansas | UCLA |
| 16 | Play-in |
Miss Valley St. | American | UT-Arlington |
| 8 | Oklahoma | UNLV |
Miss St. | BYU |
| 9 | Arizona | Texas A&M |
Kent St. | Miami |
| Tampa | Denver |
DC | Denver |
| 5 | Purdue | Conn. |
Notre Dame | Mich St. |
| 12 | Villanova | Cornell |
W. Kentucky | Temple |
| 4 | Xavier | Clemson |
Drake | Pittsburgh |
| 13 | G. Mason | Boise St. |
Oral Roberts | Sienna |
| DC | Little Rock |
Omaha | Birmingham |
| 6 | Vandy | Indiana |
Wash St. | Marquette |
| 11 | S. Alabama | St. Joe's |
Kentucky | Oregon |
| 3 | Stanford | Louisville |
Wisconsin | Butler |
| 14 | San Diego | Georgia |
CS Fullerton | Belmont |
| Tampa | Anaheim |
Omaha | Birmingham |
| 7 | Gonzaga | USC |
West VA | Arkansas |
| 10 | Baylor | Davidson |
Kansas St. | St. Mary's |
| 2 | Georgetown | Tennessee |
Duke | Texas |
| 15 | UMBC | Austin Peay |
Winthrop | Portland St. |
Play-in is Mt. St. Mary's vs Coppin St.
- Multiple team conference breakdown: Big East: 8; Big 12, PAC 10: 6;
SEC: 5; ACC, Big 10: 4; A10, WCC: 3; MVC, MWC, Sun Belt: 2
- Last 4 in: St. Joe's, Villanova, Kentucky, S. Alabama
- Last 4 out: Illinois St., Ohio St., VA Tech, Arizona St.
- Next 4 out: VCU, Syracuse, UMass, Dayton
- Moving up (+2 or more seeds):
- Moving down (-2 or more seeds):
ESPN.com: Bracketology
RealTimeRPI.com
CollegeRPI.com
ESPN.com: NCAA
Basketball
2007 Bracketology
2006 Bracketology
2005 Bracketology
2004 Bracketology
2003 Bracketology
2002 Bracketology
